New Texas Southern Polling Shows Ken Paxton with Lead over John Cornyn

Posted on Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Ken Paxton holds a 9% lead over John Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary, but only a 2% lead over Democrat Colin Allred in the November 2026 general election.

A new report by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University analyzes in detail the upcoming 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race, from the March Republican primary to the November general election.  Also examined is support among Texans for Education Savings Account (ESA) legislation and property tax relief legislation passed during the Texas Legislature’s 2025 regular session and approval of President Donald Trump’s handling of his job as president and of specific policies such as immigration & border security and tariffs & trade.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is presently well-positioned among likely GOP primary voters to defeat rivals U.S. Senator John Cornyn and U.S. Congressman Wesley Hunt in a March 2026 Republican primary, especially head-to-head, but also in a three-way race. Paxton holds a 9% lead over Cornyn (43% to 34%, with 23% unsure) and a 20% lead over Hunt (45% to 25%, with 30% unsure). In a three-way race, Paxton’s vote intention is 35%, Cornyn’s 27% and Hunt’s 15%, with 23% unsure (foreshadowing a May runoff if this three-candidate scenario were to play out next spring).

Dr. Michael O. Adams, the founding director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University commented that “while Paxton and Cornyn are well-known to virtually all Republican primary voters, with 93% and 90% saying they know enough about them to take a position on to what extent they would consider voting for them, only 61% know enough about Hunt to say the same thing”, with Adams further noting “that for about two-fifths of likely GOP primary voters Hunt remains an unknown quantity, with considerably more potential than both Paxton and Cornyn to increase his vote share.”

Almost half (49%) of Republican primary voters say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate in the 2026 Texas GOP U.S. Senate primary who was endorsed by President Trump, while 13% say they would be less likely and 38% say the endorsement would have no impact.

While Paxton presently is the favorite to win the March 2026 Republican primary, he currently performs the worst (albeit only modestly so) among the three Republicans in face-offs with three potential November 2026 Democratic nominees: former congressmen Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke and Congressman Joaquin Castro. Paxton’s average lead in vote intention over these three Democrats is 3%, with Paxton performing the worst against Allred (48% to 46%). Cornyn’s average lead in vote intention against these three Democrats is 6% and Hunt’s is 5%, with both Cornyn and Hunt performing the worst against Allred (48% vs. 44% and 47% vs. 44%, respectively).

Over the past six months Donald Trump has lost the support of a significant proportion of Texans who voted for him in November of 2024. Among those surveyed, 56% reported voting for Trump and 42% for Harris in November 2024. When asked in May if they could go back and vote again how would they vote, 51% reported they would vote for Trump and 43% for Harris, with Trump’s advantage dropping from 14 percentage points to 8. In all, only 86% of Texans who voted for Trump in November were willing to vote for him again six months later, with 9% saying that if they could turn back time they would vote for Harris and 5% saying they would not vote, would vote for a third-party candidate, or are unsure.

A narrow majority of Texans (53%) approve of how Donald Trump is handling his job as president overall. In specific policy areas, approval is highest for Trump’s handling of immigration and border security (56%) and reducing the size of the federal government (55%) and lowest for Trump’s handling of the economy (49%) and of tariffs and trade policy (45%), where he is underwater.

Among Other Findings:

• 64% of Texas registered voters support the Texas Legislature’s passage of Education Savings Account (ESA) legislation (Senate Bill 2) in 2025, including 66% of Black Texans, 65% of Latino Texans and 61% of White Texans.
• The passage of the ESA legislation is supported by 78% of White Republicans, 74% of Latino Republicans, 56% of Black Democrats, 54% of Latino Democrats, and 31% of White Democrats.
• 89% of Texas registered voters support the decision by the Texas Legislature to cut property taxes in 2025.
• 85% of Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Pres. Donald Trump, 78% of Gov. Greg Abbott, 77% of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, 68% of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, 68% of AG Ken Paxton, and 57% of U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
• 51% of Texas registered voters have a favorable opinion of Gov. Abbott, 51% of Pres. Trump, 47% of U.S. Sen. Cruz, 43% of Lt. Gov. Patrick, 42% of AG Paxton, and 38% of U.S. Sen. Cornyn.

The full report can be found via this link. The representative survey of Texas registered voters upon which the report is based was conducted between May 9 and May 19 2025, in English and Spanish, and has a sample size of 1,200 and a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

 

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